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Pakistan Resources On February 06, 2009, the Homeland Security Policy Institute welcomed Pakistani Ambassador Husain Haqqani for a Roundtable discussion concerning counterterrorism and counterinsurgency. As this event approaches, HSPI has identified three issues of being of particular importance: Pakistan’s relationship with India and Kashmir, the security and safety of Pakistan’s nuclear arsenal, and Pakistan’s relationship with the Taliban movement.
Since independence, Pakistan and India have struggled diplomatically and militarily over the status of Kashmir. Their relationship has been shaped by warfare, small skirmishes, and terrorism – the November 2008 attacks in Mumbai is just the latest example. But the relationship has also been shaped by periods of détente. As recently as this January, the two shared vital information regarding their nuclear facilities; and Pakistan continues to promise cooperation in the investigation of the Mumbai attacks. Nonetheless, recriminations and suspicions abound.Long a flash point, Kashmir threatens once again to become the defining element in the relationship between these two nuclear powers. Factor in the rise of Islamist elements within the region, and the global significance of this dispute increases exponentially. For more on this topic, see: “India-Pakistan: Troubled Relations,” BBC “Freedom in the World 2008 – Kashmir.” Published by Freedom House and found on the UN Refugee Agency’s website “In Wake of Attacks, India-Pakistan Tensions Grow,” by Robert Worth, Robert, The New York Times, published 01 December 2008 “Intelligence Chief Speaks of Need for Agile Intelligence Community,” by Robert O’Neill, Harvard Kennedy School, published 05 December 2008 “Data swap for nuclear neighbours,” by Farhan Bokhari & James Lamont, The Financial Times, published 01 January 2009 “Pakistan to help prosecute militants,” by Farhan Bokhari & James Lamont, The Financial Times, published 24 January 2009
Pakistan’s nuclear arsenal is estimated to consist of between sixty and eighty-five warheads deliverable via aircraft or ballistic missile. Given Islamabad’s no-first-use pledge against non-nuclear nation-states, Pakistan’s nuclear weapons are believed to exist as a deterrent force against military action on the part of India. It is the physical security of Pakistan’s arsenal and the country’s potential role as a proliferant of nuclear materials and expertise, not deterrence, which concerns experts. Opinion polls conducted by Foreign Policy have identified Pakistan as the country most likely to transfer nuclear technology to terrorists. And although US and Pakistani officials express confidence in Pakistan’s nuclear safeguards, the Commission of Prevention of Weapons of Mass Destruction has questioned the impact of Pakistan’s instability on such safeguards. For more on this, see: Pakistan’s Nuclear Weapons by Paul Kerr and Mary Beth Nikitin, Congressional Research Service Report for Congress, 2008 World at Risk, The Commission on Prevention of Weapons of Mass Destruction, 2008 “A Brief History of Pakistan’s Nuclear Program,” Federation of American Scientists, 2002 “The Terrorism Index 2007,” Foreign Policy “The Terrorism Index 2008,” Foreign Policy
Pakistan’s relationship with the Taliban movement is a complex one. Beginning in the 1990s, Islamabad supported the Taliban for ideological and strategic reasons. Following the attacks of 9/11, Pakistan has assisted coalition efforts to dismantle the Taliban network by conducting raids against radical madrassa and pro-Taliban charities. Yet active and former Pakistani officials have continued to provide support to the Taliban. For example, NATO has uncovered instances in which Pakistan’s Inter-Services Intelligence Directorate supplied Taliban insurgents with information concerning the location and movement of Afghan and coalition forces.Today, it is Pakistan that finds itself increasingly threatened by a resurgent Taliban. Taliban forces operating in the Swat valley are growing increasingly powerful. Taliban leaders such as Shah Boran broadcast nightly radio programs outlining acceptable behavior; those that fail to listen or challenge the listed proscriptions are routinely found decapitated. Prime Minister Gilani has promised to restore order, but just how that might be accomplished remains an open question. For more on this, see: “Counterinsurgency in Afghanistan,” by Seth Jones, RAND Counterinsurgency Study, Volume 4 “Obama’s Worst Pakistan Nightmare,” by David Sanger, The New York Times, published 11 January 2009 “In a corner of Pakistan, terror by radio,” by Richard A. Oppel & Pir Zubair Shah, The International Herald Tribune, published 25 January 2009 ----- For general inquiries regarding the series, please email hspi@gwu.edu with the subject Ambassadors Roundtable Series Inquiries. |
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